GateWeather

Press

GateWeather forecasts tomorrow's weather at 313 airports (the high and low with a likely range, chances of rain, thunder, snow and fog, wind, humidity and cloud) and checks every forecast against what the airport measured.

It combines ECMWF's open forecasts, corrected for each airport, with WT-1, a neural network trained on 26 years of hourly reports from 6,047 airports. An independent project, free to use, with no ads and no accounts.

The claim

Over a year held out from training, GateWeather's next-day high was off by 0.92°C on average, 8% less than the best other forecast tested (ECMWF AIFS, corrected, 1.00°C) and 37% less than ECMWF's raw IFS forecast (1.47°C).

319 airports, 358 days (1 November 2025 to 24 October 2026), every forecast issued at 18:00 local the evening before from what was public then. Scored against the official US highs instead, at 90 airports, it was off by 1.05°C against 1.13°C for corrected ECMWF AIFS.

Please keep these caveats with it

  • Self-reported. Every forecast and measurement is public on the test data page, so anyone can rescore it; the model itself is not open.
  • A test run after the fact, not the live record. The combination's weights were fitted on alternating weeks of that year; fitting them on earlier months only gives about the same accuracy. The live forecast has run since 27 October 2026.
  • Scored on hourly airport reports, not the official maximum and minimum (what the high means).
  • One day ahead, at airports only. Not for flight planning or safety decisions.

Figures

  • Compare: every system's error, with 95% ranges, against ECMWF, NOAA GFS, US guidance (MOS and the National Blend of Models) and DWD's MOSMIX.
  • The test data: every forecast and measurement of the held-out year, CC BY 4.0.
  • How it works and Patterns, for background.

Images

Free to use with credit "GateWeather":

Credits

Based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), CC BY 4.0, and data from NOAA and Deutscher Wetterdienst. Not an official forecast of any weather service. All credits.

Contact

hello@gateweather.com · x.com/analyzestripes. Per-airport breakdowns on request.